According to the World Fab Forecast report, recently released by SEMI, a projected decline in world semiconductor fab equipment spending of 20 percent is expected for 2008, but a rebound of over 20 percent in spending is expected in 2009, driven by over seventy fab projects. The August 2008 edition of the report lists 53 fab equipping projects and up to 21 construction projects for fabs in 2009.
In 2008, 300mm projects make up about 90 percent of all fabs equipment spending, while about 69 percent of all equipment spending is for 65 nm and below technology nodes. Overall annual semiconductor fab capacity in 2008 is expected to be about 16 million wafers (in 200mm equivalents), a growth rate of just nine percent compared to 17 percent capacity growth in 2007. In 2009, capacity is expected to grow about 10 percent.
Memory makes up the largest share of total semiconductor fab capacity with a 40 percent share in 2008, followed by foundries with over 20 percent, and logic with 15 percent. In 2009, memory will slightly increase its share to 42 percent, while foundries and logic are forecasted to remain at about the same share levels.
There have been dramatic changes in spending on fab construction projects. Many projects have been delayed during 2008 (with a decline in construction spending of -38 percent from 2007), but 2009 will show over 50 percent growth in construction spending when many of the pushed out projects begin.
Over most of the past decade, Japan has spent the largest share of money on fabs equipping. This will change in 2009 with Taiwan and S. Korea exceeding Japan in fab equipment and construction spending. By 2009, the share in total spending throughout the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) will rise to over 67 percent (from 50 percent in 2006). In 2008, only four semiconductor companies spent over $1.5 billion. In 2009, the World Fab Forecast predicts twice as many will spend at that level.
The World Fab Forecast report provides in-depth analyses of capital expenditure, capacity, technology and products, down to the detail of each fab; and forecasts for the next 18 months. These tools are invaluable for understanding fab equipment and construction spending in detail, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology level, and products.